Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between ROSSMANN Centaurs and Team Orange Gaming in the Prime League 1st Division Group A, initially scheduled for May 6 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "ROSSMANN Centaurs" if ROSSMANN Centaurs win the match against Team Orange Gaming. This market will resolve to "Team Orange Gaming" if Team Orange Gaming win the match against ROSSMANN Centaurs. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
ROSSMANN Centaurs face Team Orange Gaming in a best-of-three League of Legends match within Germany's Prime League 1st Division Group A, scheduled for 6 May at 1:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating traders view both sides as evenly matched heading into the fixture. Settlement occurs at 23:00 UTC on 6 May, allowing sufficient time for the match to conclude within the standard competitive window.
Prime League matches between mid-table contenders typically exhibit tight probability distributions when historical performance data is comparable. Both organisations have competed across multiple seasons in the German regional circuit, though recent roster changes and scrim results remain opaque to public markets. Historical precedent suggests that matches between teams with similar win-rates and recent form tend to settle near even odds, which aligns with current pricing. The 50-50 implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a data gap.
Traders should monitor official Prime League scheduling announcements for any postponements, which would trigger the seven-day delay clause and force a 50-50 resolution. Roster confirmations and last-minute substitutions, typically published 24–48 hours before match day, may shift probability if either team announces key player absences. Scrim results or public statements from coaching staff occasionally surface on esports news outlets and team social media in the days preceding fixtures, though such information rarely moves markets substantially in regional competitions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/primeleague. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs Team Orange Gaming (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$47K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/primeleague. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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