Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 1 match between Yellow Submarine and Tundra Esports in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 9 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yellow Submarine" if Yellow Submarine win the match against Tundra Esports. This market will resolve to "Tundra Esports" if Tundra Esports win the match against Yellow Submarine. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Total Kills Over/Under 53.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? | — | |
| Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 52.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Yellow Submarine and Tundra Esports are scheduled to face off in a best-of-three lower bracket match at the 1win Essence Playoffs on 9 May at 05:00 ET. The winner advances in the tournament bracket; the loser is eliminated. Tundra Esports, a Scandinavian-based organisation, has established itself as a consistent Dota 2 competitor with multiple International appearances and stable roster continuity. Yellow Submarine, by contrast, operates with less tournament visibility and represents a significantly lower seeding expectation in most competitive hierarchies.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial skill and experience gap between the two sides. Historical lower bracket matchups involving established squads against lesser-known challengers typically settle heavily in favour of the favourites, particularly in best-of-three formats where consistency compounds across multiple games. Tundra's track record in playoff environments and their access to better preparation resources create a structural disadvantage for Yellow Submarine that the market has priced to near-certainty.
Traders should monitor scheduling confirmations through the official 1win Essence Playoffs channels and any last-minute roster changes or technical issues that could delay proceedings beyond the 7-day window triggering a 50-50 resolution. The settlement deadline of 9 May at 15:00 UTC provides a six-hour buffer after the scheduled start time, though extended technical delays or match postponements remain possible in online tournament formats. No recent roster announcements or injury reports have materially shifted competitive positioning as of the market's opening.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/godota2bets. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$307K in lifetime turnover and $172 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $307K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/godota2bets. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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