Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between SHISHKA and Atreides in the CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 11 at 2:15PM ET. This market will resolve to "SHISHKA" if SHISHKA win the match against Atreides. This market will resolve to "Atreides" if Atreides win the match against SHISHKA. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: SHISHKA (-1.5) vs Atreides (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
SHISHKA and Atreides are scheduled to compete in the upper bracket quarterfinal of CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs on 11 May at 2:15PM ET, playing a best-of-three series. The winner advances further into the tournament bracket. Polymarket's order book is currently pricing this match at 100% implied probability for SHISHKA, reflecting either exceptionally strong backing for the Russian-flagged roster or minimal liquidity at present. This extreme probability reading warrants scrutiny, as such pricing often reflects thin trading volume rather than genuine certainty about outcomes.
Historical precedent in tier-two Counter-Strike tournaments shows that matches between squads of comparable standing typically settle within 40–60% ranges, with upsets occurring regularly enough to prevent consensus certainty. CCT Europe Contenders events have featured several instances where lower-seeded or less-favoured teams have advanced through upper bracket rounds. The current 100% reading suggests either that Atreides faces significant roster or preparation disadvantages, or that the market lacks sufficient participation to establish a balanced price.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations, recent scrim results, and any last-minute lineup changes through official CCT Europe channels and team announcements prior to the 11 May fixture. Fixture delays beyond the seven-day window would trigger a 50-50 resolution. The settlement window closes 12 May at 00:15 UTC, allowing minimal buffer for extended matches or administrative delays.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/cct_cs4. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$453 in lifetime turnover and $31K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $453 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/cct_cs4. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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