Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between Team Nemesis and TDK in the ESL Challenger League Europe Finals Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 28 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Nemesis" if Team Nemesis win the match against TDK. This market will resolve to "TDK" if TDK win the match against Team Nemesis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills resolving today, backed by $118K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: TDK (-2.5) vs Team Nemesis (+2.5) | — | |
| Match Winner | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 3 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 4 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The ESL Challenger League Europe Finals Playoffs Grand Final will pit Team Nemesis against TDK in a best-of-five Counter-Strike match on 28 May 2026. The fixture represents the culmination of the regional challenger circuit, where both organisations have progressed through qualification stages. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for Team Nemesis victory, indicating that traders are pricing near-certain odds for a TDK win or assigning material probability to match non-completion or technical resolution scenarios.
Historical precedent in ESL Challenger League Europe suggests that seeding and recent form carry substantial weight in finals matchups. Teams reaching grand finals typically demonstrate consistency across multiple maps and tactical flexibility. The 0% probability for Nemesis warrants scrutiny—such extreme pricing often reflects either decisive roster advantages for TDK, recent head-to-head results heavily favouring the opposition, or structural factors (map pool compatibility, player availability) that traders have weighted heavily into their positions.
Key catalysts include official roster confirmations closer to the event date, any player substitutions or stand-in announcements, and map pool selections released by ESL typically days before the final. Schedule adherence matters given the 7-day delay clause in settlement terms. Traders should monitor ESL's official communications and team social media for injury reports or organisational changes that could shift the competitive balance. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 28 May, creating a hard deadline for match completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/watchfulTVb. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 28 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.twitch.tv/watchfulTVb), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Europe Finals Playoffs", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($118K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Europe Finals Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$164K in lifetime turnover and $118K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $164K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/watchfulTVb. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Europe Finals Playoffs", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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