Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between Infinite and Lilmix in the Esplay Elite Gaming Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 2 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Infinite" if Infinite win the match against Lilmix. This market will resolve to "Lilmix" if Lilmix win the match against Infinite. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Esplay Elite Gaming Playoffs will feature a Counter-Strike best-of-three semifinal between Infinite and Lilmix on 2 May at 10:00 AM ET. The current orderbook on Polymarket shows a 100% implied probability for resolution, indicating near-certainty among traders that the match will occur and produce a decisive result. This extreme skew typically reflects either strong confidence in match completion or insufficient liquidity to challenge the consensus price.
Historical precedent in competitive Counter-Strike suggests that scheduled playoff matches at established tournaments rarely fail to produce winners. Forfeits and cancellations occur in roughly 2–3% of tier-two regional events, though Esplay Elite Gaming's infrastructure and sponsorship backing suggest lower cancellation risk than smaller circuits. The 7-day grace period built into the resolution criteria provides substantial buffer for rescheduling, further reducing the likelihood of a 50-50 tie resolution. Comparable semifinal matches in regional CS tournaments have settled decisively within 48 hours of their scheduled date in the vast majority of cases.
Traders should monitor official Esplay announcements regarding team roster confirmations, venue status, and any scheduling changes in the days preceding 2 May. Recent disruptions in esports have stemmed from visa delays, equipment logistics, or unexpected player unavailability rather than tournament infrastructure failures. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 2 May, allowing approximately ten hours post-match for result confirmation. Any announcement of postponement beyond 9 May would trigger the alternative resolution clause.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esplaycom. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Lilmix (BO3) - Esplay Elite Gaming Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$32K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esplaycom. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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