Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners match between CHAOS and MANA eSports in the United21 Group D, initially scheduled for June 4 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "CHAOS" if CHAOS win the match against MANA eSports. This market will resolve to "MANA eSports" if MANA eSports win the match against CHAOS. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map 1 Winner | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Match Winner | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs MANA eSports (+1.5) | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CHAOS (-2.5) vs MANA eSports (+2.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CHAOS (-2.5) vs MANA eSports (+2.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
CHAOS and MANA eSports will compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match within the United21 Group D tournament, scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on 4 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for CHAOS victory, suggesting near-parity between the two squads in trader assessment. This tight pricing indicates meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with neither team commanding substantial confidence from the market's collective position.
Historical precedent in regional Counter-Strike tournaments shows that Group D matches at this tier often feature volatile results, particularly when teams have limited recent head-to-head data or when roster changes have occurred within the preceding weeks. CHAOS and MANA eSports' relative ranking within the Latin American and broader competitive landscape will determine how traders weight their respective capabilities. Recent roster stability, recent LAN placements, and anti-cheat compliance records typically influence pricing in esports markets of this nature.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding player availability, any last-minute roster adjustments, or schedule confirmations from United21 organisers in the days preceding the match. Server location and ping advantages can materially affect Counter-Strike outcomes at this competitive level. The 7-day resolution window provides buffer against minor delays, though forfeiture or cancellation would trigger a 50-50 split. Current pricing at 51% suggests the market has not yet incorporated any recent team performance data or roster news that would shift conviction meaningfully in either direction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/united21_en. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$214 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $214 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/united21_en. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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