Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 12% YES | 88% NO |
The market assesses whether the US economy will achieve a "healthy" state by end-2026, defined as unemployment below 4.5% and inflation below 3% simultaneously, based on December 2026 BLS data. The current order book implies 37% probability of this dual outcome, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing whilst maintaining price stability through 2026.
Historical precedent suggests achieving both targets simultaneously is challenging. The US experienced sub-4.5% unemployment and sub-3% inflation concurrently in 2017–2019, but this window closed as pandemic stimulus drove inflation above 9% in 2022. The subsequent disinflation has been gradual; CPI remained above 3% through 2023 and into 2024. Current labour market conditions show unemployment near 4%, but sticky core inflation and wage growth complicate the path to sub-3% CPI by December 2026—a 24-month horizon requiring sustained moderation without recession-driven job losses.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy decisions through 2025–2026, particularly the terminal interest rate and any pivot toward easing. Key data releases include monthly employment reports and CPI readings, with December 2026 figures determining settlement. Economic shocks—geopolitical disruptions, commodity price spikes, or unexpected labour market deterioration—could shift the probability materially. The current 37% YES probability reflects consensus scepticism that both conditions align, though the 63% NO position prices in meaningful tail risk of either persistent inflation or unemployment rising above 4.5%.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "US economic state at the end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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