Trade: US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $22
- Open Interest
- $815
Market outcomes
| 1.0–1.5% | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 2.0–2.5% | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| 3.0–3.5% | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| <1.0% | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| 1.5–2.0% | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 2.5–3.0% | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| ≥3.5% | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Market context
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its advance estimate of second-quarter 2026 GDP growth on 30 July 2026. This figure, reported on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis, determines whether economic expansion exceeded 2.5% that quarter. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 11% probability of this outcome, reflecting market participants' assessment that sub-2.5% growth is substantially more likely given prevailing economic conditions and forecasting consensus.
Historical context suggests this probability warrants scrutiny. Since 2010, quarterly GDP growth has exceeded 2.5% annualised roughly 40% of the time, though the distribution has shifted lower in recent years. The Federal Reserve's median projection from December 2024 centred on 2.1% growth for 2025, with 2026 expectations similarly modest. Periods of above-2.5% quarterly growth typically require either strong consumer spending, significant inventory accumulation, or substantial business investment—conditions that become less frequent as economic cycles mature.
Traders should monitor labour market reports through spring 2026, particularly non-farm payrolls and wage growth data, as these drive consumer spending forecasts. The Fed's policy trajectory remains critical; any shift toward rate cuts could support demand, whilst persistent inflation would constrain it. The advance estimate itself carries revision risk—subsequent releases in August and September may alter the initial figure, though the advance estimate alone determines settlement. Supply-chain developments and corporate earnings guidance through Q2 will provide incremental signals about underlying economic momentum heading into the release date.
Wikipedia Context
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Economy of the United StatesThe United States has a highly developed and diversified market-oriented economy. It is the world's largest economy by nominal GDP, generating 26% of global economic output. It is the second-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). On a per capita basis, the U.S. ranks ninth-highest nominal GDP per capita and 10th-highest GDP per capita by PPP. The U.S. dol
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US Open (tennis)The US Open Tennis Championships, commonly called the US Open, is a hardcourt tennis tournament organized by the United States Tennis Association annually in Queens, New York City. It is chronologically the fourth and final of the four Grand Slam tennis events, held after the Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon.
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US-designated state sponsors of terrorism"State Sponsors of Terrorism" is a designation applied to countries that are alleged to have "repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism" per the United States Department of State. Inclusion on the list enables the United States government to impose four main types of unilateral sanctions: a restriction of foreign aid, a ban on weapons s
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2020 US Open (tennis)
The 2020 US Open was the 140th edition of tennis's US Open and the second Grand Slam event of the year. It was held on outdoor hard courts at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Queens, New York. The tournament was an event run by the International Tennis Federation (ITF) and was part of the calendars for the 2020 ATP Tour and the 2020 WTA To
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economic policy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "US GDP growth in Q2 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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