Trade: Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Analog Devices is estimated to release earnings on May 20, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Analog Devices’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.90 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Analog Devices reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.90 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Analog Devices releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $110
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings? | 86% YES | 14% NO |
Market context
Analog Devices will report Q2 2026 earnings on 20 May, with the Street consensus non-GAAP EPS target set at $2.90. The market resolves YES if the semiconductor company reports earnings per share above this threshold. Currently, Polymarket's order book prices this outcome at 86% probability, reflecting strong conviction that ADI will clear the consensus bar.
ADI has historically beaten earnings estimates with reasonable consistency, though semiconductor cyclicality creates material variance. The company's mixed-signal and RF chip exposure leaves it sensitive to both industrial demand and communications infrastructure spending. Recent quarters have seen the sector navigate inventory normalisation and customer caution around capital expenditure, making consensus estimates relatively conservative relative to upside scenarios. Comparable chip manufacturers have beaten consensus in roughly 60–70% of recent quarters, though ADI's operational execution has typically outpaced sector averages.
Key catalysts ahead include any pre-earnings guidance adjustments from management, sector-wide demand signals from peers reporting in late April and early May, and macroeconomic data on industrial production and technology spending. ADI's exposure to automotive electrification and 5G infrastructure deployment will frame investor expectations. The settlement window closes immediately after earnings release, leaving minimal time for post-announcement volatility to influence resolution. Traders should monitor semiconductor inventory levels and customer commentary from larger peers, which often signal near-term demand conditions affecting ADI's quarter-end results.
Wikipedia Context
-
Analog DevicesAnalog Devices, Inc. (ADI), also known simply as Analog, is an American multinational semiconductor company specializing in data conversion, signal processing, and power management technology, headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.
-
BlackfinBlackfin is a family of hybrid 16/32-bit microprocessors developed, manufactured and marketed by Analog Devices. The processors have built-in, fixed-point digital signal processor (DSP) functionality performed by 16-bit multiply–accumulates (MACs), accompanied on-chip by a 32-bit microcontroller. It was designed for a unified low-power processor architecture
-
Super Harvard Architecture Single-Chip Computer
The Super Harvard Architecture Single-Chip Computer (SHARC) is a high performance floating-point and fixed-point DSP from Analog Devices. SHARC is used in a variety of signal processing applications ranging from audio processing, to single-CPU guided artillery shells to 1000-CPU over-the-horizon radar processing computers. The original design dates to about
-
TigerSHARC
TigerSHARC refers to a family of microprocessors currently manufactured by Analog Devices Inc (ADI). It is superscalar and features data-parallelism in the form of short-vector SIMD and subword (16-bit) parallelism (SWAR). It consists of:Two separate computation blocks (CompBlocks) each with 32 general-purpose registers and their own ALU, multiplier, and shi
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 86% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $116 if YES resolves true — a 16% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $110 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for earnings contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 86%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: