Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed artists who feature on Drake's album "ICEMAN". To qualify as "featured", the listed artist must be credited on at least one song on the album according to at least one major streaming platform: namely Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, or YouTube Music. If the album fails to release by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 21 Savage | 83% YES | 18% NO |
| Morgan Wallen | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Yeat | 82% YES | 18% NO |
| Future | 93% YES | 7% NO |
| EsDeeKid | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Travis Scott | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Playboi Carti | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| J. Cole | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Drake's forthcoming album ICEMAN is expected to feature guest artists across multiple tracks, with the market currently pricing an 84% probability that at least one featured artist will appear on the project. The resolution criteria require official crediting on at least one song across Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, or YouTube Music by the December 2026 deadline. Given Drake's consistent pattern of collaborations on recent projects—Certified Lover Boy featured six credited artists, whilst For All the Ghosts featured multiple guests—the high implied probability reflects market confidence in his continued collaborative approach.
Historical precedent suggests Drake rarely releases albums without featuring other artists. His last three studio albums all included multiple guest appearances, establishing a near-standard practice in his release strategy. The current 84% probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this track record, though it also accounts for the possibility of an unexpected solo-focused direction or project delays extending beyond the settlement window.
Traders should monitor official announcements from Drake's camp, particularly via his social media channels and OVO Sound label communications, which typically precede album rollouts by several weeks. Any surprise release date confirmations or pre-release singles would serve as key catalysts. The December 2026 deadline provides roughly two years for the project's completion, though Drake's recent release cadence has accelerated, making earlier delivery plausible. Label statements regarding production status and any publicly named collaborators would materially shift market pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be featured on ICEMAN?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$111K in lifetime turnover and $37K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for drake contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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