Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Ethereum hit on May 14?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2,550 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,500 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 2,450 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 2,400 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑ 2,350 | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| ↑ 2,300 | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| ↑ 2,250 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 2,200 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
Ethereum's price action on 14 May 2026 will depend on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and on-chain activity across the following eighteen months. The current 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a market consensus that ETH reaching an unspecified target price on that specific date is unlikely, though the absence of a defined strike price in this market structure creates ambiguity around what constitutes settlement. Order book depth and recent trading activity suggest limited conviction either direction, with the probability formation driven by sparse liquidity rather than concentrated directional bets.
Historical precedent shows Ethereum has experienced price volatility ranging from 30–50% annually during comparable periods. The 2021–2022 cycle saw ETH move from $730 to $4,891 and back to $900 within eighteen months, demonstrating that large moves remain possible but require sustained catalyst alignment. Current market conditions differ materially: institutional adoption has deepened, spot ETH ETFs launched in the US in 2024, and staking yield mechanics have stabilised network participation.
Near-term catalysts include Ethereum's Shanghai and subsequent upgrade schedules, which typically drive 5–15% price reactions. Broader dependencies include Federal Reserve policy through 2025–2026, Bitcoin's trajectory (which historically correlates 0.7–0.85 with Ethereum), and regulatory clarity on staking tax treatment in major jurisdictions. Traders should monitor quarterly on-chain metrics—active addresses, transaction volume, and validator participation—as leading indicators for sustained price direction.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Ethereum hit on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $62K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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