Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Valantis token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Valantis will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $20M | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| $50M | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| $80M | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $100M | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $150M | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| $200M | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| $300M | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| $500M | 12% YES | 89% NO |
Valantis is preparing to launch a governance token, with resolution contingent on the fully diluted valuation reaching a specified threshold within 24 hours of public trading commencing. The FDV will be calculated as total token supply multiplied by the observed price, with settlement occurring by 4:00 PM ET the day following launch. The market currently implies a 39% probability of success, reflecting meaningful uncertainty around initial valuation dynamics.
Comparable token launches offer limited direct precedent for predicting Valantis specifically, though recent infrastructure and protocol tokens have shown highly variable first-day valuations depending on distribution mechanics, community size and market conditions. Uniswap's 2020 launch saw substantial initial demand, whilst many subsequent protocol tokens underperformed initial expectations. The current 39% probability suggests the market is pricing in a roughly two-to-one odds against the specified FDV threshold being breached, implying either conservative initial pricing or expectations of moderate selling pressure in the first 24 hours.
Key variables include the token distribution schedule, whether launch occurs during favourable or stressed market conditions, and the size of the initial liquidity pool. Traders should monitor Valantis announcements regarding launch timing, token allocation details and any partnership integrations that could drive early demand. The extended settlement window to January 2028 allows substantial time for launch execution, though the specific FDV threshold in the market title remains the critical determinant. Order book depth on Polymarket will reflect real-time reassessment as launch details become public.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$621 in lifetime turnover and $387 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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