Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if total commitments for the Infinex raise on Sonar exceeds the number specified in the title before the raise closes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is the official raise page available at https://infinex.xyz/sale If the final commitment amount cannot be verified by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if relevant information becomes permanently unavailable within the market timeframe, this market will resolve to “No.”
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| >$3M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| >$2M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| >$7M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| >$5M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| >$10M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >$20M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >$40M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >$60M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Infinex, a decentralised derivatives exchange, is conducting a token sale through the Sonar fundraising platform. The market will resolve affirmatively if total commitments exceed a specified threshold before the raise concludes. Current pricing on Polymarket's order book reflects 100% implied probability, suggesting traders assess the commitment target as highly likely to be met. This consensus probability is formed through active trading on the platform, where the spread between bid and ask prices narrows as conviction strengthens around a particular outcome.
Historical precedent from recent crypto token sales provides context for interpreting this probability. Raises by established protocols with existing user bases—such as Arbitrum's 2023 airdrop distribution and Optimism's governance token launch—achieved substantial commitments within their respective windows. Infinex benefits from operating within the derivatives trading sector, where demand for leverage and risk management tools remains consistent across market cycles. The 100% probability suggests market participants view the commitment threshold as conservative relative to demonstrated appetite for similar products.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding the raise timeline, any marketing campaigns Infinex deploys, and broader crypto market sentiment affecting risk appetite. The resolution deadline of 1 January 2027 provides a clear cutoff, though the actual raise closure may occur earlier. Verification depends on the official Infinex sale page remaining accessible and publishing final commitment figures. Any material delays in publishing results or unexpected platform issues could trigger the "No" resolution clause, representing the primary tail risk to the current pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Infinex public sale total commitments?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7.4M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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