Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of EdgeX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If EdgeX doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $1B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $2B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $3B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $4B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $5B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $10B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $700M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $500M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
EdgeX, a derivatives trading platform, has signalled intentions to launch a native token, with resolution contingent on the token achieving public transferability and tradeability by 31 December 2026. The market structure requires the fully diluted valuation to exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of launch—a stringent condition that reflects the volatility typical of token debuts. Current Polymarket order book pricing implies zero probability of this occurring, suggesting either deep scepticism about launch timing, token economics, or both.
Comparable token launches from established trading platforms offer instructive precedent. FTX's FTT token launched in July 2019 at a valuation substantially below its peak, whilst dYdX's governance token debuted in September 2021 with significant initial volatility but modest immediate FDV relative to later valuations. Uniswap's UNI launch in September 2020 achieved a $1.1bn FDV within hours, though this followed years of protocol maturation. The zero-probability pricing on Polymarket suggests traders are factoring either delayed launch timelines, unfavourable token distribution mechanics, or competitive pressure from established derivatives platforms as material headwinds.
Catalysts warrant close monitoring: EdgeX's public roadmap updates, regulatory clarity on derivatives platforms, and broader crypto market conditions through 2026 will shape launch feasibility. The platform's current trading volume, institutional adoption metrics, and any announced tokenomics details remain critical inputs. The December 2026 deadline creates a compressed window relative to typical platform development cycles, and any material delays in product development or regulatory approvals would render the market outcome academic.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "edgeX FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15.2M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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