Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will edgeX hit in 2026?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $3.00 | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| ↑ $2.50 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| ↑ $2.00 | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| ↑ $1.80 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| ↑ $1.60 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| ↑ $1.40 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $1.20 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ $0.80 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
EdgeX, a decentralised derivatives exchange built on the Sui blockchain, faces a price target assessment for calendar year 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 43% implied probability of the token reaching an unspecified price threshold by year-end 2026, with settlement occurring in early January 2027. This probability is formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where participants price in expectations around adoption, token utility, and broader crypto market conditions over the next two years.
Historical precedent suggests crypto exchange tokens have shown high volatility correlated with trading volume and protocol revenue. Comparable projects like dYdX and GMX experienced significant price swings tied to governance changes, fee structures, and shifts in derivatives trading demand. The current 43% probability sits in the moderate range, suggesting market participants view EdgeX's price target as achievable but not highly favoured relative to alternative outcomes. This reflects uncertainty around whether Sui's ecosystem will capture sufficient derivatives volume to drive token appreciation.
Key catalysts include EdgeX's product roadmap updates, Sui network adoption metrics, and competitive positioning against established derivatives platforms. Traders should monitor announcements regarding new trading pairs, leverage offerings, or integration partnerships. Broader crypto market sentiment, particularly movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum, will likely influence derivatives trading activity and thus EdgeX's fundamental value proposition. Regulatory developments affecting decentralised derivatives exchanges also carry material weight for 2026 outcomes.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will edgeX hit in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $413 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto prices contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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