Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Person L | — | |
| Person T | — | |
| Person Z | — | |
| Brad Bradford | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| Anthony Furey | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kevin Clarke | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Person A | — | |
Toronto will hold municipal elections on 26 October 2026, with voters selecting the city's next mayor. The current incumbent, John Tory, announced in March 2023 that he would not seek re-election, creating an open race. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 October 2026, with a backstop resolution date of 30 June 2027 if results remain unclear. Polymarket's order book has not yet formed a live price, meaning the implied probability reflects only initial liquidity and positioning.
Toronto's mayoral elections typically feature competitive multi-candidate fields. The 2018 race saw John Tory win with approximately 40% of the vote against nine other candidates. Comparable Canadian municipal races in major cities—including Vancouver and Montreal—have shown that front-runner status can shift substantially during campaign periods, particularly once candidates formally declare and media coverage intensifies. Early polling or endorsement patterns may not persist through to voting day.
Traders should monitor formal candidate declarations, which typically accelerate in the months preceding the election. Campaign finance disclosures and local media coverage of candidate platforms will provide substantive signals about viability. Any changes to the election date or unexpected mayoral departures before October 2026 could alter the race dynamics. Recent Toronto municipal governance discussions have centred on housing affordability, transit expansion, and budget constraints—issues likely to define campaign messaging.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$30K in lifetime turnover and $60K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for canada contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $682 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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