Trade: Another Canada election called by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
- $80K
- 24h Volume
- $68
- Open Interest
- $15K
Market outcomes
| Another Canada election called by June 30? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
The market concerns whether Canada's federal government will call a general election before the end of June 2026, with the election date itself needing only to be officially announced by that deadline—it need not occur within the settlement window. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability for YES, pricing in a scenario where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau or a successor dissolves Parliament and schedules a vote earlier than the constitutionally mandated October 2029 deadline.
Canadian federal elections are typically held on fixed four-year cycles, with the last general election occurring in September 2021. Early elections have been relatively uncommon in recent decades; the most recent snap election was in 2015 when Stephen Harper called a vote ahead of schedule. Minority governments, however, create structural instability—Canada has operated under minority administrations in 2019–2021 and again from 2021 onwards, making confidence votes and coalition dynamics material factors. The 1% probability reflects the base rate of early elections combined with current parliamentary arithmetic, where the Liberal government has maintained confidence through supply-and-confidence agreements rather than dissolution.
Key catalysts include confidence votes in the House of Commons, shifts in coalition support arrangements, or major political crises that could prompt an early election call. Traders should monitor parliamentary confidence votes, any breakdown in the supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP (which has been extended through 2025), and statements from opposition parties regarding their willingness to support or topple the government. Recent polling and leadership changes within major parties would also signal changing incentives around election timing.
Wikipedia Context
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Another ScandalAnother Scandal is a 1924 American silent drama film directed by Edward H. Griffith and distributed by W. W. Hodkinson. Based on a 1923 novel Another Scandal by Cosmo Hamilton, the film stars Lois Wilson and Holmes Herbert.
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In Another Land (album)In Another Land is a studio album recorded by Larry Norman and released in 1976. It is the third album in Norman's "trilogy", which began with Only Visiting This Planet and continued with So Long Ago the Garden. The album contains some of Norman's most well-known work.
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O Canada"O Canada" is the national anthem of Canada. The song was originally commissioned by Lieutenant Governor of Quebec Théodore Robitaille for the 1880 Saint-Jean-Baptiste Day ceremony; Calixa Lavallée composed the music, after which French-language words were written by the poet and judge Sir Adolphe-Basile Routhier.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Another Canada election called by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 1% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $10000 if YES resolves true — a 9900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$80K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for canada contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $68 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Another Canada election called by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Another Canada election called by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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