Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 7th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Doris Matsui | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| Mai Vang | 83% YES | 18% NO |
| Robert Morin | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Enayat Nazhat | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Ralph Nwobi | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| Zachariah Wooden | 27% YES | 73% NO |
California's 7th congressional district will hold its primary election on 2 June 2026, with this market tracking whether the designated candidate advances to the general election. The 93% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong confidence in a primary contest occurring as scheduled, with sufficient candidate participation to produce a nominee. This probability has formed through trading activity across the order book, where participants are pricing in the baseline expectation that California's primary machinery functions without major disruption.
Historical precedent suggests primary elections in established congressional districts rarely fail to produce nominees. California's primary system, reformed under the Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act, has consistently generated nominees across all districts since 2012. The 2024 cycle saw all California House primaries resolve to nominees, establishing a recent pattern of reliable execution. The 93% figure accounts for residual tail risks: candidate withdrawal, legal challenges to ballot access, or unforeseen scheduling changes, though these remain uncommon.
Traders should monitor California Secretary of State filings for candidate declarations, which typically accelerate in the months preceding the primary. The settlement window closes on 2 June 2026, coinciding with election day itself, meaning results will be determined by official SOS reporting. Key dependencies include whether the district's incumbent seeks re-election and whether primary field fragmentation occurs, though neither would prevent nominee selection. Any material changes to California's election calendar or candidate eligibility rules would warrant reassessment of the current probability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CA-07 Primary Winners" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for california primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $166 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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