Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on WhiteHawk Minerals' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 5 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $600M–$675M | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| $675M–$750M | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| $900M+ | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| <$600M | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| $825M–$900M | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| No IPO before August 2026 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| $750M–$825M | 8% YES | 92% NO |
WhiteHawk Minerals is scheduled to list on a US exchange on 5 June 2026, with this market settling on the company's closing market capitalisation on its first trading day. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 34% probability that the closing cap will exceed the threshold specified in the full market terms. If the IPO does not occur by 31 July 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO before August 2026", effectively pricing in execution risk alongside valuation uncertainty.
Comparable junior mining and minerals exploration IPOs have historically opened with significant first-day volatility, though closing valuations typically reflect underwriter guidance and institutional anchor investor demand established during roadshow phases. Recent precedent from similar-stage mineral explorers suggests closing caps often range between $300m and $800m depending on commodity exposure, reserve quality, and market sentiment towards the sector. The 34% current probability reflects scepticism about WhiteHawk reaching the upper end of potential valuations, though this may shift as the listing date approaches and final prospectus details emerge.
Traders should monitor WhiteHawk's final prospectus filing, which will disclose underwriter stabilisation parameters and initial share allocation. Commodity price movements—particularly for metals in WhiteHawk's portfolio—will influence institutional demand ahead of listing. Any delays to the scheduled June 5 date or material changes to the offering size would alter execution probabilities materially. Market conditions for junior mining IPOs have remained mixed through early 2026, with capital flowing selectively toward projects with near-term production timelines.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "WhiteHawk Minerals IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $533 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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