Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between RB Leipzig and FC St. Pauli 1910.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| RB Leipzig | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
RB Leipzig will travel to face FC St. Pauli on Saturday, 9 May 2026 in a Bundesliga fixture. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability of a Leipzig victory, with settlement occurring at 13:30 UTC on the match date. This probability has emerged from active trading across the book's depth, balancing backing and laying positions as traders price in available information about team form, squad availability, and historical matchup dynamics.
Leipzig's recent Bundesliga record provides substantial context for the current pricing. The club has finished in the top four in each of the past five seasons and maintains consistent competitive depth, whilst St. Pauli has historically occupied mid-to-lower table positions when competing in the top flight. Head-to-head records between these sides show Leipzig with a marked advantage in direct encounters. The 72% probability aligns with Leipzig's structural superiority in squad quality and seasonal consistency, though it leaves meaningful room for St. Pauli upset scenarios—typical for matches where the favourite is not prohibitively favoured.
Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight preceding the fixture, particularly injury updates affecting Leipzig's attacking options or St. Pauli's defensive shape. Bundesliga fixture congestion in late April and early May may influence squad rotation decisions. Recent form trends in both sides' final matches before 9 May will provide updated information on momentum and player availability, potentially shifting the order book's probability distribution as settlement approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.4M in lifetime turnover and $1.2M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for bundesliga contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.3M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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