Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed artists who feature on Ariana Grande's album "Petal". To qualify as "featured", the listed artist must be credited on at least one song on the album according to at least one major streaming platform: namely Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, or YouTube Music. If the album fails to release by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Olivia Rodrigo | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Tyla | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| The Weeknd | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| Doja Cat | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Billie Eilish | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Drake | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Frank Ocean | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| Taylor Swift | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Ariana Grande's forthcoming album "Petal" will determine whether specific artists receive featured credits on its tracklist. The market currently prices a 49% probability that at least one named artist will appear as a featured performer, with settlement contingent on credits appearing across Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, or YouTube Music by 31 July 2026. The album must release by 31 December 2026 for any resolution other than "No".
Grande's previous album "eternal sunshine" (2024) featured no guest artists, establishing a recent precedent for solo releases from the artist. However, her earlier catalogue shows variable collaboration patterns: "thank u, next" (2018) included features from Ariana herself and others, whilst "Positions" (2020) contained no credited features. This mixed history means the 49% probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a strong directional bias, with the market essentially pricing a coin-flip scenario.
Traders should monitor official announcements from Grande's label Republic Records and social media channels for tracklist reveals, which typically occur weeks before album release. Industry reporting from sources such as Variety and Billboard will provide early signals of any collaborations. The settlement window closing 31 July 2026 creates a compressed timeline for resolution once the album drops, requiring rapid verification across streaming platforms. Any delays to the album's release date would extend the information-gathering period and potentially shift market pricing as the December deadline approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be featured on Petal?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$93 in lifetime turnover and $865 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for billboard contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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