Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Constellation Energy | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| GE Vernova | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Micron | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Qualcomm | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Vertiv | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Eaton | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| MARA Holdings | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Oklo | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Situational Awareness LP, the investment vehicle associated with prominent AI researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky, will file its next quarterly 13F-HR disclosure with the SEC in May 2026, reporting equity holdings as of 31 March 2026. This market resolves based on whether that filing reveals a newly initiated long position in a specified stock that did not appear in the fund's immediately preceding quarterly filing. The 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about the fund's investment direction and portfolio construction during this period.
Historical precedent suggests that emerging investment vehicles with concentrated thematic mandates—particularly those focused on technology and AI infrastructure—typically rotate holdings meaningfully between quarterly filings. Situational Awareness LP's previous disclosures have shown selective positioning in large-cap technology names, though the fund's relatively modest asset base and concentrated approach mean new positions, when initiated, tend to represent material allocation decisions rather than marginal adjustments. Comparable vehicles tracking similar themes have demonstrated new position initiation rates of 30–60% per quarter, placing the current 50% probability within reasonable bounds.
Key catalysts include any public statements from fund management regarding investment thesis adjustments, broader market movements in AI-adjacent equities, and the timing of the fund's capital deployment cycle. The resolution hinges entirely on the contents of the 13F-HR filing itself, which must be submitted within 45 days of quarter-end. Traders should monitor announcements from Situational Awareness LP and track movements in mega-cap technology stocks that align with the fund's stated focus areas during the first quarter of 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Situational Awareness add 2026 to its upcoming 13F?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $51 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for big tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: