Trade: Cerebras IPO Closing Market Cap
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Cerebras Systems' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $39K
- Total Volume
- $76K
- 24h Volume
- $57K
- Open Interest
- $20K
Market outcomes
| <$20B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $20B–$30B | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| $30B–$40B | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| $40B–$50B | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $50B+ | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| No IPO before July 2026 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Cerebras Systems, a semiconductor company specialising in large-scale AI chip design, is scheduled to price its initial public offering on 14 May 2026, with first-day trading expected the same day. The market will settle based on the company's closing market capitalisation on that debut trading session. If the IPO does not occur by 30 June 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO before July 2026". The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about whether the offering will proceed as scheduled, rather than conviction that it will not occur.
Recent semiconductor IPOs provide context for reading current valuations. Mobileye's 2014 debut valued the Intel-backed firm at roughly $16 billion; Broadcom's 2005 IPO priced at $2.3 billion. More recently, private semiconductor companies have faced extended timelines to public markets amid volatile tech valuations and investor scrutiny of capital intensity. Comparable chip designers with custom architectures have typically opened with market caps between $3 billion and $12 billion depending on revenue scale and growth trajectory.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding IPO pricing details, underwriter guidance, and market conditions in the weeks preceding May 2026. Semiconductor sector momentum, broader equity market volatility, and any regulatory developments affecting AI chip exports will influence both the likelihood of the offering proceeding and its opening valuation. Cerebras' recent funding rounds and revenue trajectory will be material to how underwriters position the deal relative to peers.
Wikipedia Context
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Cerebral polyopia
Cerebral diplopia or polyopia describes seeing two or more images arranged in ordered rows, columns, or diagonals after fixation on a stimulus. The polyopic images occur monocular bilaterally and binocularly, differentiating it from ocular diplopia or polyopia. The number of duplicated images can range from one to hundreds. Some patients report difficulty in
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Internal carotid arteryThe internal carotid artery is an artery in the neck which supplies the anterior and middle cerebral circulation.
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Retroflex consonantA retroflex consonant is a coronal consonant where the tongue has a flat, concave, or even curled shape, and is articulated between the alveolar ridge and the hard palate. They are sometimes referred to as cerebral consonants—especially in Indology. Other terms are domal and cacuminal, though in rare cases either word can mean palatal consonants more broadly
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ApoplexyApoplexy refers to the rupture of an internal organ and the associated symptoms. Informally or metaphorically, the term apoplexy is associated with being furious, especially as "apoplectic". Historically, it described what is now known as a hemorrhagic stroke, typically involving a ruptured blood vessel in the brain; modern medicine typically specifies the a
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Cerebras IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$76K in lifetime turnover and $39K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for big tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $57K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Cerebras IPO Closing Market Cap"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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