Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards are scheduled to occur in Japan on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed title that wins the award for Best Drama Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed title which comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards and the official Crunchyroll website (https://www.crunchyroll.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Anne Shirley | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| The Apothecary Diaries Season 2 | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Blue Box | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Orb: On the Movements of the Earth | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| The Summer Hikaru Died | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Takopi's Original Sin | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Show A | — | |
| Show B | — | |
The 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards will take place in Japan on 23 May 2026, with the Best Drama Anime category determining which title wins recognition in a field typically dominated by character-driven narratives and emotional storytelling. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 8% implied probability for this particular title, suggesting traders assess it as a moderate long-shot relative to competing entries in what remains an open field with several months of additional anime releases and industry discourse ahead.
Historical precedent from prior Crunchyroll Awards cycles shows the Best Drama category rewards titles with sustained critical acclaim, strong viewership metrics, and thematic depth—factors that often align with productions from established studios and narratives addressing complex emotional or social themes. Previous winners have typically emerged from the spring and autumn anime seasons preceding the awards, giving productions sufficient time to complete their runs and accumulate fan voting momentum. The relatively low probability assigned today reflects either limited recent visibility for this title or expectations that stronger contenders will emerge before the May 2026 deadline.
Key catalysts include the announcement of official nominees (typically occurring weeks before the ceremony), completion of competing anime series, and shifts in fan voting patterns as Crunchyroll opens its public ballot. Traders should monitor industry publications tracking 2026 anime releases and any early critical reception data that might reshape competitive positioning. The resolution mechanism specifies alphabetical ordering in case of ties or missing declarations by 30 June 2026, introducing a secondary consideration for traders evaluating edge cases.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Anime Awards: Best Drama Anime Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$178 in lifetime turnover and $469 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for awards contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $82 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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