Trade: MLB: 2026 American League Champion
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $453K
- Total Volume
- $3.7M
- 24h Volume
- $854
- Open Interest
- $20K
Market outcomes
| Baltimore Orioles | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Boston Red Sox | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| New York Yankees | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Chicago White Sox | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cleveland Guardians | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Detroit Tigers | 8% YES | 93% NO |
Market context
The 2026 Major League Baseball season will culminate in October with the American League Championship Series, determining which team advances to the World Series. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 5% probability for this market resolving YES, reflecting the distributed likelihood across the 15 AL teams competing for the pennant. This compressed probability reflects the inherent uncertainty in a season still months away, where roster composition, injury patterns, and mid-season trades remain unresolved variables.
Historical context suggests that preseason probabilities for individual league champions typically range between 5% and 15% for competitive franchises, with the strongest rosters occasionally reaching 20%. The AL has produced relatively balanced competition in recent years, with no single team dominating the regular season consistently enough to command outsized championship odds. Teams like the Houston Astros and New York Yankees have periodically held stronger positions, though postseason performance frequently diverges from regular-season strength due to playoff volatility and matchup dynamics.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through 2026: major free-agent signings and trades during the off-season, spring training performance indicators, and injury reports for key players. The trade deadline in late July typically reshapes contending rosters, whilst the AL East and AL West divisional races will clarify which teams maintain playoff positioning. Recent reporting from MLB.com and ESPN will provide updates on roster moves and team trajectories as the season progresses. The settlement window closes on 1 November 2026, allowing resolution shortly after the ALCS concludes in early October.
Wikipedia Context
-
MLB 06: The ShowMLB 06: The Show is a 2006 baseball video game developed by San Diego Studio and published by Sony Computer Entertainment for the PlayStation 2 and PlayStation Portable. It is the first game in the MLB: The Show franchise, after its predecessor series ended due to the formation of San Diego Studio from and 989 Sports.
-
MLB 2004MLB 2004 is a 2003 baseball video game developed by 989 Sports and published by Sony Computer Entertainment for the PlayStation 2. An abridged version for the PlayStation more faithful to its predecessors was released the same month. Unlike the earliest releases of baseball video games, such as Atari: Home Run, MLB 2004 maintained traditional aspects of base
-
MLB 2006MLB 2006 is a baseball video game developed by 989 Sports and published by Sony Computer Entertainment for the PlayStation 2 on March 8, 2005. A PlayStation Portable version, simply titled MLB, was released in April 2005. Vladimir Guerrero of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim was featured on the cover.
-
MLB 2005MLB 2005 is a 2004 baseball video game developed by 989 Sports and published by Sony Computer Entertainment for the PlayStation and PlayStation 2. Eric Chavez of the Oakland Athletics was featured on the cover. The latter console version was released in Japan as MLB 2004 on May 27, 2004.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "MLB: 2026 American League Champion" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3.7M in lifetime turnover and $453K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for american league contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $854 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "MLB: 2026 American League Champion"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: