Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on May 11, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on May 11, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 11? | 35% YES | 65% NO |
Airbnb's share price movement on 11 May 2026 will determine this market's resolution, comparing that day's closing price against the prior trading day's close. The current order book on Polymarket reflects 44% implied probability for an up move, suggesting traders assess a slight lean toward downward pressure or consolidation over the next trading session.
Single-day directional bets on large-cap equities typically resolve based on broader market sentiment, sector rotation, and company-specific news rather than fundamental revaluation. Airbnb's historical volatility has been moderate relative to technology peers, with daily moves of 1–3% common during ordinary trading conditions. The 44% probability sits near the neutral midpoint, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than conviction toward either direction. Comparable travel and hospitality stocks have shown sensitivity to macroeconomic data releases, consumer spending signals, and seasonal booking trends, all of which can shift intraday positioning.
Traders should monitor any earnings announcements, regulatory developments, or broader market events scheduled for 10–11 May 2026. Recent quarterly performance and forward guidance have historically moved Airbnb shares; similarly, broader equity market movements—particularly in response to Federal Reserve communications or economic data—often drive single-day directional outcomes. Seasonal patterns around spring travel bookings may also influence sentiment. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 11 May, allowing for full trading day price discovery before resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for abnb contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $18K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 35%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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