Trade: Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for May 13 at 8:00PM ET: If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces". If the Connecticut Sun win, the market will resolve to "Connecticut Sun". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun | 65% YES | 36% NO |
Market context
The Las Vegas Aces face the Connecticut Sun in a WNBA regular-season matchup on 13 May at 8:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 63% implied probability of a Las Vegas victory, suggesting the market perceives the Aces as moderate favourites. This probability is being formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where buyers and sellers are pricing in the relative strength of both rosters and recent performance trends heading into the contest.
Las Vegas enters the 2026 season as a perennial WNBA contender, having won multiple championships in recent years with a stable core featuring A'ja Wilson and other established players. Connecticut has shown competitive improvement but remains a younger roster still building consistency. Historical matchups between these franchises and their respective win-loss records this season will inform how traders are weighting the 63% probability—whether it reflects genuine competitive advantage or market overestimation of Vegas's edge.
Traders should monitor injury reports and roster availability in the days leading to tip-off, particularly any late-breaking absences that could shift the probability meaningfully. Schedule density and travel fatigue, especially if either team has played recently, may influence performance. The settlement window closes on 14 May at 00:00 UTC, allowing for resolution immediately after the game concludes. Any postponement would keep the market open until completion; cancellation without rescheduling would trigger a 50-50 resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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Las VegasLas Vegas, colloquially shortened to Vegas, is the most populous city in the U.S. state of Nevada and the county seat of Clark County. It is the 24th-most populous city in the United States, with 641,903 residents at the 2020 census. The Las Vegas metropolitan area has an estimated 2.4 million residents and is the 29th-largest metropolitan area in the countr
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2017 Las Vegas shootingOn October 1, 2017, a mass shooting occurred when 64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada from his 32nd-floor suites in the Mandalay Bay hotel. He fired more than 1,000 rounds, killing 60 people and wounding at least 413 others. The ensuing panic brought the total num
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Las Vegas RaidersThe Las Vegas Raiders are a professional American football team based in the Las Vegas metropolitan area. The Raiders compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the American Football Conference (AFC) West division. The team plays its home games at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada, and is headquartered in Henderson, Nevada.
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Las Vegas ValleyThe Las Vegas Valley is a major metropolitan area in the southern part of the U.S. state of Nevada, and the second-largest in the Southwestern United States. The state's largest urban agglomeration, the Las Vegas Metropolitan Statistical Area is coextensive since 2003 with Clark County, Nevada. The Valley is largely defined by the Las Vegas Valley land forma
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wnba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 65% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $154 if YES resolves true — a 54% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for wnba contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 65%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wnba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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