Trade: Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 13?

Market context

On 13 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station will determine which temperature range resolves as correct. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific station. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 51% probability for the YES outcome, reflecting modest conviction among traders about whether the day's peak temperature will fall within the specified range.

Qingdao's May climate typically sees maximum temperatures between 20–25°C, with occasional peaks reaching 26–28°C during warm years. Historical data from the airport station shows considerable year-to-year variation depending on whether warm air masses from the south dominate early May or cooler maritime influences persist. The current implied probability of 51% suggests traders view the outcome as near-equilibrium, indicating uncertainty about whether seasonal norms or anomalous conditions will prevail on this particular date.

Traders monitoring this market should track spring weather pattern forecasts from late April onwards, particularly the position of high-pressure systems over East Asia and any unusual warming trends across the region. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea influence Qingdao's coastal climate significantly; warmer waters can suppress maximum temperatures whilst cooler conditions allow inland heating to dominate. Long-range forecasts become more reliable approximately two weeks before the settlement date, at which point the order book may see material movement as traders incorporate updated meteorological guidance.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$4K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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