Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 29°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 30°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 31°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 32°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 33°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 34°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 35°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 36°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
On 3 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will fall within one of several defined ranges. The market resolves based on historical weather data from Weather Underground, capturing the daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius at this primary meteorological station. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, once the day's readings are finalised.
Manila's May temperatures are shaped by the pre-monsoon season, when the city typically experiences heat and humidity before the southwest monsoon arrives. Historical May maxima at the airport station cluster between 32°C and 36°C, with occasional excursions above 36°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The current order book shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either insufficient liquidity or a genuine absence of trading activity at current spreads. This suggests the market has not yet attracted substantive price discovery, leaving the crowd's true expectations unformed.
Traders monitoring this contract should track the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) seasonal forecasts, which typically issue detailed May outlooks by late April. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 would materially influence temperature trajectories. Additionally, any volcanic activity affecting atmospheric opacity in the region could suppress May maxima, though such events remain unpredictable. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single airport station means localised weather patterns on the day will determine outcomes rather than broader regional trends.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Manila on May 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$27K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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