Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 22°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 23°C | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 24°C | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 25°C | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| 26°C | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 27°C | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 28°C | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| 29°C | 10% YES | 91% NO |
This market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 17 May 2026, with settlement based on historical weather data from Weather Underground. The current order book shows 0% implied probability, indicating no traders have positioned for any specific temperature range at this stage—a typical pattern for weather markets more than a year in advance where uncertainty remains substantial.
Guangzhou's May climate is characterised by late spring conditions transitioning toward summer. Historical data shows daily highs in mid-May typically range between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during warmer years. The 0% probability reflects the inherent difficulty in forecasting specific temperature ranges eighteen months ahead; seasonal weather patterns are predictable at a broad level, but daily extremes depend on transient atmospheric conditions that current meteorological models cannot reliably project this far forward. Comparable May temperature records at the station provide the baseline against which future outcomes will be measured.
Traders monitoring this market should track any emerging climate pattern signals as May 2026 approaches—particularly El Niño or La Niña developments, which influence East Asian temperatures on seasonal timescales. As the settlement date draws nearer, typically within two to four weeks beforehand, weather forecasts become actionable and order book activity should increase substantially. The current dormancy reflects rational pricing given the forecasting horizon; meaningful positions will likely emerge once deterministic weather models can provide reliable ten-day outlooks.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 17?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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