Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher or at the same level on Chainlink's data feed during a five-minute window on 8 May 2026, from 3:30AM to 3:35AM ET. The settlement relies exclusively on Chainlink's XRP/USD oracle rather than spot exchange prices, which can diverge meaningfully during low-liquidity periods. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in upward movement or minimal trading activity in this particular five-minute slice, a common pattern for ultra-short-duration price prediction markets where liquidity concentrates around round-number time windows.
Five-minute directional markets on crypto assets historically show that implied probabilities near extremes (above 95%) often reflect sparse order book depth rather than genuine conviction. During Asian trading hours—when this window falls—XRP typically experiences lower volume than US or European sessions, increasing the probability of minimal price movement in either direction. A five-minute window offers little time for meaningful catalysts to move the market; most price action would stem from algorithmic trading, liquidations, or order flow imbalances rather than fundamental news.
Traders should monitor whether any regulatory announcements regarding XRP occur in the days preceding settlement, as these could create volatility that persists into the settlement window. Recent XRP price action has been tied to broader crypto market sentiment and SEC regulatory developments. The Chainlink feed's specific pricing methodology may also matter; if the oracle sources liquidity differently than major exchanges during this low-volume Asian morning window, basis risk between Chainlink and spot markets could influence actual settlement outcomes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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