Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market captures XRP price movement across a five-minute window on 2 May 2026, from 14:45 to 14:50 ET, settling against Chainlink's XRP/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The 100% implied probability reflects the order book's current positioning, where traders have priced in near-certainty of an upward or flat close relative to the opening price of that interval. Such extreme probabilities in ultra-short-duration markets typically indicate either very thin liquidity on the "Down" side or genuine consensus around directional bias at that specific time window.
Five-minute price movements in XRP historically exhibit high variance relative to their magnitude; intraday volatility often produces swings of 0.5–2% within similar timeframes, particularly around market opens or during periods of elevated trading volume. Comparable short-window markets on Polymarket show that crowded probabilities near 100% frequently reflect information asymmetry rather than certainty—traders with access to order flow data or scheduled announcements may have positioned accordingly. The Chainlink feed's slight lag relative to some spot markets can also create arbitrage opportunities that influence pricing.
Traders should monitor XRP's broader market conditions on 2 May, including any regulatory announcements from the SEC or statements from Ripple, both of which have historically moved the asset within minutes. Bitcoin's directional bias during the settlement window will likely influence XRP's correlation patterns. The specific 14:45–14:50 ET slot falls outside major US market opens, reducing the probability of scheduled macroeconomic catalysts, though crypto-native news cycles operate independently of traditional market hours.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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