Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, May 11, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, May 11, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The S&P 500 will close either higher or lower on Monday, 11 May 2026 compared to the prior trading day's settlement. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 47% probability for an up day, reflecting near-parity between bullish and bearish positioning ahead of the session. This balanced pricing suggests traders are uncertain about directional momentum entering the second full week of May, with no consensus forming around either outcome.
Single-day equity index movements of this nature historically resolve with roughly 51–52% frequency in the up direction during normal market conditions, reflecting a modest positive drift in equity markets over time. The current 47% probability for an up day sits slightly below this long-run baseline, indicating the crowd is pricing in either headwinds specific to early May 2026 or a technical setup that favours downside. Comparable single-day S&P 500 prediction markets typically see probabilities cluster around 48–52% when no major economic data or earnings catalysts are scheduled, suggesting this market's current pricing is consistent with ordinary uncertainty.
Traders should monitor economic releases scheduled for the week of 11 May, including any Federal Reserve communications or inflation data that could shift sentiment overnight. Corporate earnings announcements, if concentrated around that date, could also drive directional bias. Oil and Treasury yields will warrant attention as leading indicators of risk appetite. The resolution depends entirely on the closing price differential, making intraday volatility irrelevant—only the final settlement matters.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$329K in lifetime turnover and $302K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for up or down contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $328K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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