Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Solana Up or Down - May 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market resolves based on whether Solana's price according to Chainlink's SOL/USD data stream closes higher or equal to its opening level during a five-minute window on 10 May at 10:35–10:40 PM ET. The 100% implied probability reflects the current orderbook structure on Polymarket, where traders have priced in near-certainty of an upward or flat close. Such extreme probabilities in five-minute price windows typically emerge when liquidity is sparse or when one side of the market has established a dominant position, leaving little room for counterparty interest at alternative odds.
Five-minute price movements in Solana historically exhibit high variance relative to longer timeframes, with intraday volatility regularly producing swings of 1–3% within similar windows. The current 100% reading is unusual for such a short duration and suggests either minimal trading activity or a structural imbalance in the order book rather than genuine consensus about directional certainty. Comparable ultra-short-window markets on Polymarket frequently see probability shifts when fresh liquidity enters, particularly if traders perceive mispricing.
Traders monitoring this window should note Solana's recent performance context and any scheduled announcements near the settlement time. As of early May 2026, broader cryptocurrency market conditions and Bitcoin's price action typically drive Solana's intraday movements. The Chainlink data feed itself carries execution risk; any delays or anomalies in the oracle's price reporting could affect settlement interpretation, though Chainlink's SOL/USD stream is widely used across decentralised finance protocols and generally maintains reliable uptime.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Solana Up or Down - May 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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