Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Solana Up or Down - May 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether Solana's price according to Chainlink's SOL/USD data feed closes higher or equal to its opening level during a five-minute window on 9 May at 11:40–11:45 PM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where no traders are pricing in an upside move during this specific micro-timeframe. Such extreme probabilities on ultra-short windows typically indicate either minimal liquidity or a consensus view that downward pressure dominates the settlement period.
Five-minute price movements in Solana historically exhibit high variance, with intraday volatility regularly producing swings of 1–3% within similar timeframes depending on broader crypto market conditions and spot trading activity. Comparable micro-duration markets on established prediction platforms show that extreme probabilities (near 0% or 100%) often reflect thin order books rather than high conviction, particularly when settlement windows are this narrow. The absence of any YES position suggests traders view the risk-reward unfavourable for betting on upside, though this could shift rapidly if fresh liquidity enters.
Traders monitoring this settlement should watch for scheduled announcements or economic data releases that could trigger volatility in the five minutes leading to 11:45 PM ET. Solana's price action typically correlates with broader cryptocurrency movements and Bitcoin's trajectory. The Chainlink data feed itself carries dependencies on oracle node reporting, so any disruptions to that infrastructure could affect settlement clarity, though such occurrences remain rare. Current market depth will determine whether the probability remains anchored at extremes or adjusts as the settlement window approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Solana Up or Down - May 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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