Trade: Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

100% YES 0% NO

Opened 3 May 2026 · Settles 4 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $0
Total Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $5

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Market outcomes

Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

100% YES

0% NO

Market context

This market resolves based on whether Solana's price according to Chainlink's SOL/USD data stream is higher or equal at 4:25PM ET on 4 May 2026 compared to 4:20PM ET. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility in one of the largest cryptocurrency assets by market capitalisation. Current order book activity on Polymarket is pricing this outcome at 100% implied probability, reflecting either extreme confidence in upward movement or minimal trading volume at the extremes of the probability distribution.

Five-minute price movements in SOL have historically been driven by order flow imbalances, liquidation cascades, and coordinated trading activity rather than fundamental news. During volatile market conditions, Solana has exhibited sharp reversals within similar timeframes, particularly around major exchange order book concentrations. The current 100% probability suggests traders are either heavily skewed bullish or that the market depth at the extremes is thin, making marginal orders move the implied probability substantially.

Traders should monitor Solana ecosystem announcements and broader cryptocurrency market movements in the hours preceding the settlement window. Bitcoin and Ethereum price action typically correlates with SOL movements, and any significant volatility in major pairs could trigger cascading moves. Additionally, the specific Chainlink data feed's update frequency and any potential latency between spot market prices and the oracle's reported value may create discrepancies that affect resolution. Liquidation levels on major derivatives platforms should be tracked, as concentrated positions can trigger sharp five-minute swings.

Wikipedia Context

Solana Sierra
Solana Sierra is an Argentine tennis player. She has a career-high WTA singles ranking of No. 63, achieved on 19 January 2026. She is the current No. 1 Argentine singles player.
Solana Beach, California
Solana Beach is a beach city in San Diego County, California, on the South Coast. Its population was at 12,940 at the 2020 U.S. census, up from 12,867 at the 2010 census.
Javier Solana
Francisco Javier Solana de Madariaga CYC is a Spanish physicist and PSOE politician. After serving in the Spanish government as Foreign Affairs Minister under Felipe González (1992–1995) and as the secretary general of NATO (1995–1999), leading the alliance during Operation Allied Force, he was appointed the European Union's High Representative for Common Fo
Solana (blockchain platform)
Solana is a public blockchain platform that uses a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism and provides smart contract functionality. The platform's native cryptocurrency is SOL. Solana was founded in 2018 by Toly Yakovenko and Raj Gokal, and the network was launched in March 2020 by their San Francisco-based company, Solana Labs.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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