Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures whether Hyperliquid's price will close higher or flat over a five-minute window on 10 May 2026 from 6:00–6:05 AM ET, measured against Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme bearish positioning, suggesting traders are pricing in a near-certain decline during this specific interval. Such compressed probabilities in five-minute windows typically indicate either heavy selling pressure anticipated at market open or a technical setup where the crowd expects downward momentum to persist from prior sessions.
Five-minute price windows rarely settle to "Up" when implied probabilities reach zero, though historical precedent shows such extremes occasionally reverse when unexpected liquidity or news arrives within the settlement period. Most five-minute micro-windows resolve according to broader intraday momentum rather than discrete events; the current 0% reading suggests the order book has absorbed significant sell-side conviction. Traders should note that Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed may lag spot market prices by seconds, creating potential discrepancies between perceived price action and actual settlement data.
Catalysts during this window remain limited given the early morning ET timeframe and the brevity of the interval. Hyperliquid's perpetual futures markets operate continuously, so any overnight Asian or European session volatility could establish directional bias before the settlement window opens. Traders monitoring this contract should watch for any protocol announcements or broader cryptocurrency market moves in the hours preceding 6:00 AM ET, though the five-minute resolution window itself offers minimal time for new information to move prices materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: