Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hyperliquid's price movement will be assessed over a five-minute window on 6 May between 11:20pm and 11:25pm ET, using Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed as the settlement source. The market resolves to "Up" if the closing price meets or exceeds the opening price within this interval, otherwise "Down". The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme bearish sentiment or minimal trading activity in this particular five-minute window, which is typical for ultra-short-duration price prediction markets where liquidity concentrates around longer timeframes.
Five-minute price windows for cryptocurrency assets historically exhibit high volatility relative to their duration, with outcomes heavily influenced by order flow timing rather than fundamental shifts. Comparable micro-duration markets on Polymarket typically see probabilities cluster around 45–55% when genuinely uncertain, suggesting the current 0% reading indicates either a structural absence of buyers at current odds or a consensus short position. Hyperliquid, a decentralised perpetuals exchange token, trades across multiple venues with varying liquidity depths, creating potential discrepancies between Chainlink's aggregated feed and spot prices.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's perpetuals volume and funding rates in the hours preceding the settlement window, as these often precede directional moves. Any significant liquidation cascades or large position unwinds could establish momentum into the five-minute interval. Network activity or exchange announcements affecting HYPE's utility would be material, though the compressed timeframe limits reaction scope. The settlement dependency on Chainlink's specific data stream rather than spot markets introduces basis risk that should factor into position sizing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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