Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hyperliquid's price movement will be assessed over a five-minute window on 4 May between 7:40 PM and 7:45 PM ET, with settlement determined by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed rather than spot market prices. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to an upward movement, reflecting either extreme bearish sentiment or minimal trading activity in this specific micro-timeframe contract. Such compressed time windows typically attract scalpers and algorithmic traders rather than directional speculators, and the absence of YES bids suggests either technical disinterest or a view that five minutes provides insufficient volatility to justify position-taking.
Five-minute price resolution windows offer limited historical precedent for meaningful analysis, as they capture intraday noise rather than directional conviction. Comparable micro-duration contracts on volatile assets have historically seen implied probabilities cluster around 45–55% when order books are active, reflecting the near-random walk nature of such brief intervals. The current 0% reading indicates the market has effectively priced out upside, though this may reflect low liquidity rather than confident downside positioning.
Traders monitoring this contract should note that Hyperliquid operates as a decentralised perpetual futures exchange, and broader crypto market movements—particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum price action—typically drive HYPE sentiment. Any announcements regarding platform updates, trading volume milestones, or regulatory developments could theoretically influence the five-minute window, though such catalysts would need to materialise precisely during the settlement period to affect resolution. Chainlink's data feed latency and any discrepancies between the feed and actual spot prices remain relevant technical considerations.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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