Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price will close higher or flat against the dollar during a five-minute window on 2 May 2026, from 7:05 to 7:10 AM Eastern Time, as measured by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed. The zero per cent implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme confidence in a downward movement during this specific interval, though such certainty in five-minute price movements is unusual given typical microstructure noise and bid-ask spreads across venues.
Five-minute directional predictions on crypto assets have historically been dominated by technical noise rather than fundamental catalysts, particularly outside of scheduled announcements or market-wide volatility events. Comparable ultra-short-window markets on established tokens show that crowd-implied probabilities near zero often reflect either genuine conviction about imminent negative news, or liquidity constraints on the buy side of the order book. The current 0% reading warrants scrutiny: it may indicate traders are positioned for a specific downside event, or simply that no one has committed capital to the "Up" side at available prices.
Traders should monitor whether any Hyperliquid protocol announcements, exchange listings, or broader crypto market moves are scheduled for early morning on 2 May. Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed aggregates prices from multiple sources, so divergences between centralised and decentralised venues could affect settlement. The five-minute window's brevity means that typical market microstructure—order flow, liquidations, or algorithmic trading—may dominate price action more than fundamental shifts.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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