Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price, as reported by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data stream, closes higher than or equal to its opening level during a five-minute window on 2 May between 1:15AM and 1:20AM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where no traders are currently willing to back an upward movement during this specific intraday interval. Such extreme probabilities on short-duration price movements typically indicate either minimal liquidity in the order book or a consensus that downward pressure is near-certain within the window.
Five-minute price movements in crypto assets rarely exhibit directional certainty, even when broader market sentiment is bearish. Historical precedent from similar ultra-short-window markets shows that such extreme probabilities often reflect thin order books rather than genuine predictive confidence. Hyperliquid, a decentralised perpetual futures exchange launched in 2023, has experienced significant volatility tied to broader market cycles and exchange-specific developments. The 0% probability here likely reflects either a lack of active traders on this particular contract or a structural imbalance in orders rather than a deterministic view of price action.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements or protocol updates affect HYPE during the settlement window, though such developments are unlikely within a five-minute span. Broader cryptocurrency market movements in the hours preceding 1:15AM ET will establish the immediate price context. The Chainlink data feed itself represents the sole arbiter of settlement, so any discrepancies between spot markets and the oracle's reported price become the relevant consideration rather than actual exchange prices.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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