Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market settles based on whether the Chainlink ETH/USD data stream records a price at 2:30PM ET on 31 May 2026 that is equal to or higher than the price at 2:25PM ET that same day. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility in Ethereum's spot price as aggregated through Chainlink's oracle infrastructure, which draws from multiple exchanges to produce its reference rate. Resolution depends entirely on Chainlink's published data stream rather than any single exchange or alternative pricing source.
Five-minute price movements in Ethereum typically reflect either algorithmic trading activity, brief liquidity imbalances, or reactions to real-time news flow. Historical precedent suggests such micro-timeframe moves are near-random without specific catalysts; the current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book indicates either extremely thin liquidity in this particular contract or a technical pricing anomaly rather than genuine market conviction. Comparable ultra-short-window markets on crypto assets show settlement outcomes distributed roughly evenly between up and down moves when no scheduled events coincide with the window.
Traders should monitor whether any announcements, exchange maintenance windows, or macroeconomic data releases are scheduled for 2:25–2:30PM ET on that date, as these could create directional pressure. Chainlink's data feed status and any potential oracle delays would also affect settlement certainty. The settlement window extends to June 2026, providing ample time for resolution clarity, though the five-minute observation period itself leaves minimal room for information to accumulate before the market closes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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