Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether the Chainlink ETH/USD data stream will show Ethereum trading higher or flat at 5:15 PM ET on 9 May 2026 compared to its price at 5:00 PM ET that same day. The 15-minute window captures intraday volatility during US afternoon trading hours, when spot markets typically see moderate volume but can experience sharp moves on news or derivative liquidations. Settlement relies exclusively on Chainlink's oracle feed rather than spot exchange prices, which occasionally diverge during periods of network congestion or exchange-specific trading halts.
The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme confidence in an upward or flat close, though such certainty in 15-minute price windows is historically uncommon. Comparable micro-timeframe markets on Ethereum typically exhibit wider probability distributions—often 55–70% for directional bets—because intraday noise and order-book dynamics create genuine uncertainty. A 100% reading suggests either minimal liquidity depth in the order book, with small trades moving the probability ceiling, or a specific catalyst traders expect within the window.
Traders should monitor Ethereum's broader market conditions on the day, including any scheduled protocol updates, major exchange announcements, or macroeconomic data releases that could trigger volatility during US afternoon hours. The Chainlink feed's behaviour during periods of high network activity or flash crashes should also be considered, as oracle latency occasionally creates brief discrepancies between real-time spot prices and on-chain settlement values.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for up or down contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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