Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Dogecoin's price movement will be assessed over a five-minute window on 5 May 2026, from 5:00 to 5:05 AM Eastern Time, using Chainlink's DOGE/USD data feed as the settlement source. The market resolves to "Up" if the closing price meets or exceeds the opening price during this interval; otherwise it resolves "Down". The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting directional movement across such a compressed timeframe, where tick-level volatility and microstructure effects dominate over fundamental drivers.
Five-minute price windows in cryptocurrency markets historically exhibit near-random walk behaviour, particularly during low-liquidity periods. Early morning ET sessions (5:00–5:05 AM) typically coincide with reduced trading volume across major exchanges, amplifying the influence of individual orders and widening bid-ask spreads. Comparable ultra-short-duration markets on Polymarket have shown that such tight time windows rarely favour directional conviction; the probability distribution tends toward 50/50 absent extraordinary catalyst timing.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements—regulatory filings, exchange maintenance windows, or macroeconomic data releases—occur within the settlement window or immediately preceding it. Chainlink's data feed aggregates prices from multiple sources, so any flash crash or exchange-specific anomaly could create divergence between spot prices and the feed's reported value. The lack of meaningful order book depth at extreme probabilities suggests minimal institutional positioning ahead of this window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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