Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
BNB will trade during a five-minute window on 10 May 2026 between 4:05PM and 4:10PM ET. The market resolves to "Up" if the closing price at 4:10PM ET meets or exceeds the opening price at 4:05PM ET, using Chainlink's BNB/USD data stream as the settlement source rather than spot exchange prices. The current orderbook on Polymarket shows 100% implied probability for an upward or flat movement, reflecting either minimal expected volatility during this specific interval or a technical skew in the market's pricing.
Five-minute price windows for major cryptocurrencies historically exhibit substantial variance. BNB's intraday volatility typically ranges between 1–3% during standard trading hours, meaning a five-minute candle could plausibly close lower despite broader market conditions. Markets pricing such intervals at extreme probabilities often reflect thin liquidity or one-sided positioning rather than genuine certainty about directional movement. Comparable short-window markets on crypto assets have frequently resolved contrary to initial crowd expectations when unexpected news or order flow emerges.
Traders should monitor BNB's broader market conditions in the hours preceding the settlement window, including Bitcoin's trajectory and any announcements from Binance or regulatory bodies that could trigger volatility spikes. Chainlink's data feed aggregates multiple price sources, so discrepancies between spot exchanges and the oracle's reported price at 4:10PM ET could affect settlement. The extreme probability pricing suggests limited market participation or conviction; actual execution at these odds may prove difficult.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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