Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on whether BNB's price on the Chainlink BNB/USD data stream moves upward or remains flat during a five-minute window on 5 May 2026 between 11:05 and 11:10 AM Eastern Time. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to an upward movement, reflecting either extreme confidence in a downward tick or minimal liquidity at current pricing levels. Such extreme probabilities in short-duration price prediction markets typically indicate either sparse trading activity or a consensus view that downside pressure dominates the interval.
Five-minute price movements in cryptocurrency markets are notoriously difficult to predict with conviction, as they depend on order flow dynamics, flash crashes, and microstructure noise rather than fundamental shifts. Historical precedent suggests that markets pricing five-minute directional moves at 0% or 100% often reflect illiquidity rather than genuine certainty. BNB's typical intraday volatility and the compressed timeframe mean that even modest trading volume or a single large order execution could shift price direction within this window.
Traders should monitor BNB's broader market conditions in the hours preceding the resolution window, including any announcements from Binance or movements in Bitcoin that might create momentum. The Chainlink data feed itself warrants attention, as it aggregates multiple price sources; any divergence between spot exchanges or unusual spreads could influence the final reading. Macro cryptocurrency sentiment and any regulatory developments affecting BNB specifically would constitute material catalysts, though the five-minute window limits exposure to longer-term news flow.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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