Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures whether BNB trades higher or lower over a five-minute window on 3 May 2026, specifically between 12:05PM and 12:10PM ET, as measured by Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to an upward movement, reflecting either extreme bearish sentiment or illiquidity in this particular contract. Such compressed probabilities in short-duration price markets typically indicate either thin order books or a consensus view that downward pressure dominates the specific timeframe.
Five-minute price movements in major cryptocurrencies like BNB are predominantly driven by microstructure dynamics rather than fundamental news. Intraday volatility clustering, order flow imbalances, and technical levels matter more than macroeconomic catalysts over such brief intervals. Historical analysis of comparable ultra-short-dated crypto contracts shows that when implied probabilities collapse to zero, they often reflect either genuine conviction about directional bias or simply the absence of meaningful liquidity on one side of the book. The Chainlink data feed itself carries no settlement lag, making this a pure price-action contract.
Traders should note that BNB's broader market conditions on 3 May—including Bitcoin's intraday momentum, spot exchange volumes, and any scheduled announcements from Binance or the wider ecosystem—will set the tone for intraday volatility. However, within a five-minute window, the specific price action depends heavily on order book depth and execution patterns rather than news flow. The zero probability reading suggests the market is either pricing in strong downside conviction or awaiting fresh liquidity to form meaningful two-sided pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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