Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
BNB will trade during a five-minute window on 3 May 2026 between 8:15AM and 8:20AM ET. The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink BNB/USD data stream shows a price at 8:20AM greater than or equal to the price at 8:15AM; otherwise it resolves "Down". Settlement occurs at 12:20PM ET the same day, with resolution sourced exclusively from Chainlink's oracle feed rather than spot market data.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting five-minute price movements in any asset class. Historical analysis of intraday BNB volatility shows that five-minute intervals typically exhibit near-random walk behaviour, with roughly 50% of such windows closing higher and 50% lower. Comparable ultra-short-duration markets across crypto assets demonstrate that crowd-implied probabilities near 0% or 100% on such timeframes typically indicate either illiquidity in the order book or a genuine absence of edge, rather than strong directional conviction.
Traders should note that BNB's price action during this specific window will depend on broader market conditions on the day, including any overnight developments in crypto markets and traditional equity futures. The five-minute resolution window falls during early US trading hours, when volatility can spike around economic data releases or Asia-Pacific market closes. Chainlink's data feed aggregates prices from multiple exchanges, so the resolution will reflect a median or weighted average rather than a single venue's price action, reducing the likelihood of flash crashes or single-exchange anomalies affecting the outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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