Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Mateusz Rebecki" if Mateusz Rebecki is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Dawson to win by KO/TKO? | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Rebecki to win by KO/TKO? | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 78% YES | 22% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 67% YES | 33% NO |
Grant Dawson, a lightweight contender with a record of 16 wins and 1 loss, faces Mateusz Rebecki on the preliminary card of UFC 328 on 9 May 2026. This bout sits beneath the main event featuring Khamzat Chimaev versus Sean Strickland. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 56% implied probability for Dawson's victory, suggesting the market views him as a slight favourite despite the preliminary placement.
Dawson's recent form provides context for the current pricing. His sole professional loss came to Nasrat Haqparast in 2021, and he has since compiled a winning streak that includes notable victories over established lightweights. Rebecki, competing at a lower profile level, brings less extensive UFC experience to the matchup. Historical patterns in preliminary bouts show that fighters with Dawson's record of consistency and recent momentum typically command probability advantages, though preliminary card volatility remains higher than main card fights due to reduced media coverage and fighter preparation variables.
Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health and weight-cut confirmations in the weeks preceding the event. Any late withdrawals or replacements would trigger resolution complications under the market's technical draw provisions. The settlement window extends to 10 May 2026, allowing for same-day resolution once official UFC records confirm the outcome. Preliminary card results can shift based on fighter availability and late-notice changes, so tracking UFC's official roster updates remains essential for position management.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$123K in lifetime turnover and $206K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for ufc contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $95K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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