Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | 3% YES | 97% NO |
The 2026 midterm elections will determine control of the presidency, House, and Senate. For this market to resolve "Yes," Republicans must retain the White House (already held), win or maintain House control, and secure at least 60 Senate seats—a supermajority threshold that grants significant legislative power. The current 4% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the historical difficulty of achieving such a trifecta with an enhanced Senate majority during a midterm cycle.
Supermajorities in the Senate are rare achievements. Since 1980, no party has held 60+ Senate seats whilst simultaneously controlling the presidency and House in a midterm outcome. The 2022 midterms saw Republicans gain House seats but lose Senate seats, whilst the party holding the presidency typically faces headwinds in midterms. The current probability pricing suggests traders assess this outcome as substantially more difficult than standard trifecta control, reflecting the structural challenge of gaining Senate seats in a midterm environment.
Key catalysts include economic data releases through 2026, presidential approval ratings, and specific Senate race dynamics in competitive states. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory will influence voter sentiment heading into November. Redistricting effects on House races and candidate recruitment announcements in Senate races will provide concrete signals. Special elections scheduled before November 2026 could shift baseline expectations, whilst any runoff elections in Georgia or other states would extend the settlement window beyond election day itself.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$83K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $36 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 3%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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